Stainless steel is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term
Date：2021-08-18 Views：6844
2021 is a year of comprehensive economic recovery. Under the background of the gradual promotion of Xinguan vaccine and the continuous recovery of economy and consumption, the short-term stainless steel price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Since the beginning of the year, the overall price of stainless steel has shown a strong trend of oscillation. At the beginning of January, the overall inventory of stainless steel spot market was tight, and most merchants supported the price. In mid January, the main contract of stainless steel futures fell by the limit, and some businesses reduced the price, but the market situation of high-carbon ferrochrome at the raw material end was strong, the steel mills controlled the delivery rhythm, and the market price was mainly high. From the end of January to the Spring Festival, the downstream actively hoards goods, and the market transaction atmosphere is acceptable. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that stainless steel will maintain a strong oscillation pattern in the first quarter of 2021.
The macro level continued to improve
Domestically, in January 2021, Caixin Chinas manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.5, the lowest since July 2020, but still in the expansion range for the ninth consecutive month. The supply and demand of manufacturing industry continued to expand, but the speed slowed down significantly; The overseas epidemic has repeatedly led to the reduction of orders of foreign trade enterprises and significantly inhibited foreign demand. Chinas official manufacturing PMI in January was 51.3, expected to be 51.3, the previous value was 51.9; PMI of non manufacturing industry was 52.4, with the previous value of 55.7, falling for the second consecutive month; The PMI of the service industry was 52.4, the previous value was 55.7, the largest decline since February last year. In December 2020, CPI rose to 100.2, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.
Overseas, many countries have strengthened epidemic control. The US House of Representatives approved the budget coordination plan of the new crown rescue and relief bill. The Fed frequently mentioned reducing bond purchase in early February, and market concerns increased.
On the whole, on the domestic side, consumption is still the "ballast stone" for the stable operation of the economy. The import and export performance is eye-catching. The domestic economy is gradually getting rid of the impact of the epidemic and is generally good. Overseas, the monetary policy in Europe and the United States continues to be loose, and the European central bank intends to raise the expectation of interest rate cut, which is still superimposed on the expectation of Biden governments fiscal stimulus, and the market is still optimistic.
Fundamentals are highlighted
Raw material prices continue to strengthen. Before the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore continued to be tight, the ore price rose, and the transaction price of ferronickel rose. The South China Steel Plant entered the site for inquiry to purchase high Ferronickel, but the market price was very high, and no transaction was reached yet. The new production capacity of ferronickel and stainless steel in Indonesia is being put into operation simultaneously, and the quantity of ferronickel returning to China may weaken expectations. In terms of other raw materials, the energy consumption of ferrochromium in Inner Mongolia is double controlled and overweight, and the output continues to be reduced. The increase in the south is difficult to make up for the decrease in Inner Mongolia. With the increase of electricity charges in Inner Mongolia and the increase of ferrochrome smelting costs, there is still room for ferrochrome prices to rise. The purchase price of 304 waste stainless steel rose to 11000 yuan / ton. Cost driven logic remains strong.
The supply of raw materials is tight. According to the data, in January 2021, the national nickel pig iron production increased by 3.27% month on month to 38600 tons of nickel. By grade, the output of high nickel iron in January was 31600 tons of nickel, an increase of 5.74% month on month; The output of low nickel iron was 7000 tons, a month on month decrease of 6.58%. The output of nickel pig iron in January was reversed compared with that in December last year, and the output of high nickel pig iron and low nickel pig iron was different. The output of high nickel pig iron increased significantly, mainly due to the sharp recovery of the output of large ferronickel plants in East China. The significant decrease in the output of low nickel pig iron is related to the shutdown and maintenance of 200 series integrated stainless steel plants in East China and South China.
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